ObjectivesThe Aviation Gridded Forecast System (AGFS) Branch manages the definition and distribution of software tools that will enable National Weather Service (NWS) aviation forecasters to add value to, or edit, aviation-impact variable (AIV) grids generated by fine-resolution weather prediction models run by the NWS. Examples of AIVs are icing, turbulence, and clouds, all of which are used by pilots, air traffic controllers, and traffic flow managers to support safety and efficiency in the National Airspace System.AccomplishmentsDuring the past year, branch staff collaborated with the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City, Missouri, to develop and evaluate software tools that will allow AWC forecasters to view and add value to the gridded AIVs included in the AGFS database, and to efficiently generate aviation warnings and forecasts from the gridded AIVs. Accomplishing these tasks is crucial to establishing an effective and efficient "end-to-end" AGFS. The AGFS starts with the increasingly accurate and detailed AIVs generated by state-of-the-art forecast models and algorithms; benefits from the considerable experience and expertise of the dedicated, capable, and professional aviation meteorologists at AWC who add value to the AIVs; and makes available site-specific and accurate meteorological information (grids and observations) that can be tailored into products for aviation decisionmakers.The three primary reasons for undertaking this cooperative effort to edit AIVs are related. First, tomorrow's forecasters will require technology that will enable them to add value to data grids generated automatically by forecast models. Second, today's forecast models are incapable of generating key AIVs with the accuracy required to support aviation decisionmaking. While future models promise to improve the accuracy of these AIVs, it is believed that forecasters will be able to add sufficient accuracy to model-generated AIVs to warrant forecaster involvement. The third reason is the need to increase forecaster productivity in an era when tighter budgets will probably dictate that more work be done by fewer forecasters.
Specific accomplishments in the AGFS Branch include:
The evaluation study by the FAATC reported that the initial tools provided forecasters useful concepts for viewing and editing gridded data; however, some improvements are necessary before they can be considered for operational use. For example, additional features are needed, such as temporal animation, capability to display AWC warnings and forecasts, and increased system performance. ProjectionsThe AGFS Branch will continue to work closely with the Aviation Weather Center to define requirements for advanced tools (Figure 45) for viewing and adding value to AIVs. These tools will run within the FX-Advanced workstation environment. In addition to tools for adding value to AIVs for inflight icing, plans are underway to define required tools for AIVs for turbulence and clouds. The goal is to make these value-added AIVs capable of supporting "free flight" (a new concept in which the pilot selects the optimal route) and generating more accurate and timely warnings and forecasts. Also, some of the viewing and editing concepts developed by FSL are being implemented into AWC operations to support the generation of the Significant Weather Prognosis (for variables such as tuburlence and thunderstorms) products, which will be operational around June 1997.
Figure 45. A screen from the AIV Editor displaying initial tools to view and edit icing grids. The upper right side shows a horizontal cross section of predicting icing (red) with voice pilot reports of icing (yellow) and satellite imagery. The bottom right side shows a vertical cross section of icing and topography (green) along the east-west line shown in the upper display. The left side of the display shows a vertical sounding of predicted temperature and dewpoint temperature for a location specified by the forecaster. |
This page maintained by: Wilfred von Dauster Last modified 15 May 1997